Prediction markets took $50B on the World Cup. Your licence is the edge they cannot buy.
Event contracts won the volume argument at record scale. The consumer-protection argument is still unclaimed. Prediction-market sites took more than $50B in bets across the World Cup opening. Kalshi handled $31B in June, about 85% on sports. Polymarket’s international site set a record $10.8B, plus $3.5B on its US site. The World Cup Winner market alone drew about $3.9B on Polymarket and $800M+ on Kalshi. Both are regulated by the CFTC and legal in all 50 states on paper. Massachusetts bans sports event contracts, and Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and California are fighting them in court.
A famous bear just bought the sportsbooks. Is the story finally too cheap?
Flutter sits 65% below its August peak on a belief about the future, with revenue nowhere near that decline. On 10 July 2026 investor Michael Burry revealed bets on Flutter near $107 and DraftKings in the low $26s, weighted about 60/40 toward Flutter, on the view that regulators will crack down on CFTC event contracts. Flutter trades about 65% below its August high and DraftKings about 45% off its own high. Both are also building their own prediction-market products.
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