Event contracts won the volume argument at record scale. The consumer-protection argument is still unclaimed. Prediction-market sites took more than $50B in bets across the World Cup opening. Kalshi handled $31B in June, about 85% on sports. Polymarket’s international site set a record $10.8B, plus $3.5B on its US site. The World Cup Winner market alone drew about $3.9B on Polymarket and $800M+ on Kalshi. Both are regulated by the CFTC and legal in all 50 states on paper. Massachusetts bans sports event contracts, and Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and California are fighting them in court.
