JPMorgan puts Brazil at about 9% of Evolution’s sales, and every licensed operator there goes offline on 6 October.
On 25 September Brazil’s president signed a provisional measure, an order with the force of law. It bans online betting and online casino. Deposits stopped that day. Players can withdraw until 5 October. Every licensed site and app goes offline on 6 October.
Brazil sold 85 licences at R$30 million each, about R$2.55 billion in fees. Holders get no refund. Congress has 120 days to confirm the measure.
The share prices tell a strange story. Flutter fell 11.5% in five days on a market worth about 1% of its revenue. Evolution fell 7%, and JPMorgan puts Brazil at about 9% of its sales. Bragg fell 9.4%, with Brazil at 10% of its 2025 business.
A supplier does not hold a Brazilian licence. It sells through the operators who do. When the operator’s licence ends, the supplier’s Brazilian revenue ends the same day.
An operator can write its licence down once. Flutter lists $539 million of goodwill and about $280 million of other assets tied to Brazil. A supplier loses revenue every quarter instead. At Evolution’s Q2 revenue of €517.8M, 9% is about €47 million a quarter.
The warning came early. On 21 August this board wrote that the bill in Congress deletes the casino. On 1 September Bragg told the SEC that Brazilian operators were moving to direct supplier integrations. The ban came as an emergency order, ahead of the bill.
Our read: the ban meets a court before it meets Congress. Industry groups and betting companies plan legal challenges. Evolution reports third-quarter results on 23 October. We put 70% on it naming a Brazil number in that report.
Demand that comes through someone else’s licence stops when the licence stops. Demand that asks for your game by name keeps arriving, wherever the operator plays next. That is the part of a supplier’s revenue Brazil cannot switch off.
This week, split your revenue by market and by who holds the licence behind it. Find the share that sits on a licence you do not hold. Our call on the bill resolves on 4 October, on its own words.